Carroll County would likely see positive gains from Wolf Creek as the development built out over 35 years, according to a Carroll Tomorrow study released Thursday. But Carroll County Schools would face “a very precarious financial future” under the 17,500-home, 12,180-acre development, and would do so even if Wolf Creek didn’t exist.

The county-requested study, the result of two years of work by Carroll Tomorrow and the University of Georgia’s Carl Vinson Institute, attempts to simulate Wolf Creek’s composition and effect on the local economy and public budgets. Outgoing Carroll Tomorrow head Slater Barr cautioned it only was a study of “economics,” and not environmental or social factors resulting from Wolf Creek.

“It is a piece of the puzzle,” Barr said. He called the study a “very daunting and complex task” due to Wolf Creek’s size, nature (mixed-use), and lifespan.

“This is a project that spans decades,” he said.

“You’re building a city, in effect,” said Carlianne Patrick Crotty, Carroll Tomorrow vice president and one of the study’s chief architects.

Carroll Tomorrow Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Loy Howard stressed that this was a “model,” not an “opinion,” and its creators worked hard to provide an “independent and objective review of this issue.” Its results were kept secret until Thursday, Barr said, and had “isolation from outside influences.”

Barr said the $48,000 charge by the Carl Vinson Institute was paid for by Carroll Tomorrow, though Wolf Creek developer Forestar Real Estate Group reimbursed it. However, he said he didn’t feel this reimbursement affected the study’s integrity, and likened it to other instances in which developers were asked to foot the bill for work resulting from their projects.

Patrick Crotty said that several different models were generated by the study. She said the version considered “by far the most valid” projected a Wolf Creek in which 44.22 percent of its residents would have lived in Carroll County anyway and 55.78 percent would not have come here if the development did not exist.

But she also prepared extreme scenarios in which 100 percent of Wolf Creek’s residents respectively would or would not have lived in Carroll County anyway between now and 2055.

“They are completely unlikely,” she said. She also projected a version of Carroll County without Wolf Creek at all.

The recommended scenario sees Wolf Creek generating 11,000 jobs through 2055, while the other two extremes show the development creating 9,700-12,000 jobs.

“The economic impact analysis showed far greater job creation and output as a result of the Wolf Creek community than would occur in Carroll County without it,” an executive summary states. “The fiscal impact analysis shows those increases will result in additional revenues for the County given the assumptions outlined herein.”

Wolf Creek paid for itself for Carroll County under the preferred scenario, even when Patrick Crotty eliminated funding sources like salvage values (the worth of capital assets), special purpose local option sales taxes, and even local option sales taxes. The county nets $10.6 million on Wolf Creek’s existence under the recommended estimate, as opposed to $5.1 million if it didn’t exist at all and $5.9-$15.9 million under the two Wolf Creek extremes.

“The Carroll County runs suggest the ability of new growth to fund itself given the current structure of the County budget in terms of net present value,” the summary states. However, the estimates do not include water and wastewater issues -- it was unknown what entity would handle that for Wolf Creek -- nor do they include deficiencies or changes in level of service.

Carroll County Schools saw a much less rosy scenario -- “a very precarious financial future with or without Wolf Creek,” the summary states.

“Operationally, the Carroll County School System maintains a positive net present value of benefits in most cases,” the summary states. “When the need to build additional schools is added to the equation, though, the Carroll County School System runs show no scenario in which the revenues generated by growth exceed the costs.”

The best chance the system has over the next few decades of breaking even is the scenario in which Wolf Creek exists, but everyone inhabiting it was coming to Carroll County anyway. “The reason for this result is the school system benefits from all the additional industrial and commercial investments made by the developer without having to educate significantly more children,” the summary states.

Patrick Crotty said the school system’s results were a surprise to her, though Superintendent John Zauner indicated the system had foreseen this already.

“Slater, that’s not breaking news to us,” Zauner said. Carroll County School Board member Mike Huckeba blamed the system lacking the ability to collect impact fees -- something the county can and will do should Wolf Creek be approved.